Paris (awp / afp) - Oil production in the United States will be even higher than expected in the coming years, OPEC expects in a report released on Sunday, which also anticipates a sharp growth in global demand for black gold long-term.
The global supply of liquid hydrocarbons (petroleum, liquefied natural gas, etc.) is expected to grow from 98.4 million barrels per day (bpd) this year to 104.7 mbd in 2023, reaching 111.9 mbd in 2040 according to the annual outlook report issued by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
These figures are slightly higher than what the cartel reported last year, and the difference comes from the expected dynamism of black gold production in non-cartel countries, especially the United States.
The supply of non-OPEC countries is expected to rise by 8.6 mbd to 66.1 mbd between 2017 and 2023, driven by higher demand and higher oil prices, the report says.
However, production from these countries is expected to peak in the late 2020s, allowing crude oil pumped in the cartel countries, which has tended to fall in the medium term, to rebound vigorously.
On the demand side, despite the growth of electric vehicles and energy transition policies, global demand for oil will continue to grow, OPEC predicts.
It is expected to rise from 97.2 million barrels per day (bpd) this year to 104.5 million barrels per day in 2023, then to 111.7 mbd in 2040, a level slightly higher than expected by the cartel. last year.
However, demand growth will slow sharply between 2035 and 2040 due to the development of electric vehicles and energy efficiency efforts.
Above all, the cartel sees a very contrasting evolution according to the regions of the world. The thirst for black gold in emerging countries will increase sharply with their population growth, the expansion of their middle class and their economy.
On the other hand, from the beginning of the 2020s, demand for oil from OECD countries will decline.
But by 2040, oil will remain the first energy consumed, ahead of gas and coal.
afp / rp
